Economic Upturn in Many Swiss Cantons

After stagnating or in some cases declining economic development from July 2023 to May 2024, the latest monthly data shows slight growth in many cantons. This is particularly pronounced in the cantons of Zurich (Q2: +1.07 %, July +1.71 %) and Basel-Stadt (+0.80 %, +2.48 %). There was also a positive trend in the canton of St. Gallen (+0.54 %, +1.10 %). In contrast, the economy is stagnating or shrinking in the two economically strongest cantons in western Switzerland, Geneva and Vaud. Nevertheless, the July data is back in positive territory for the first time in 12 months, and for Geneva it is even clearly positive at +1.07 %. The data for the canton of Berne continues to point to declining economic growth.

Fig. 1: Growth rate of the Swiss REco Index

(compared to the same month of the previous year in percent)

Watch exports declined in the first half of the year (see Figure 3). Nevertheless, many watch cantons are showing a positive economic trend. Neuchâtel in particular, which employs the most people in the watch industry, has recorded positive growth figures since March 2024. The canton of Jura is performing roughly in line with Switzerland as a whole. In the canton of Bern, the second-largest watchmaking canton, the situation is different. Here, the Swiss REco Index has been negative since July 2023 and indicates a decline in GDP of around 1 %.

Fig. 2: Growth rate of the Swiss REco Index in watch cantons

(compared to the same month of the previous year in percent)

Real watch exports in Switzerland are down in most cantons compared to the same month last year. The cantons of Bern, Neuchâtel and Jura are particularly hard hit by this decline. Real watch exports from Geneva, on the other hand, are increasing slightly. 

Neuchâtel is an interesting case. Real watch exports are falling, but real exports from all sectors in this canton are increasing overall. This is due to exports from the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors, which account for three quarters of total exports in this canton.

Figure 3: Growth rate of real exports in ‘Electronics and watches’

(compared to the same month of the previous year in percent)

The economic recovery is showing the first positive results on the labour market. The number of job advertisements (source: x28 AG) stopped declining for the first time in May 2024 and has remained stable in some cantons. 

However, the SECO labour market data does not yet reflect this development up to and including May 2024. All details can be found in the Swiss REco Dashboard. This proves that the job advertisements collected by x28 AG are a timely indicator of economic development – not only during downturns, but also when the economy picks up.

Fig. 4: Growth rate of the x28 index of advertised jobs

(compared to the same month of the previous year in percent)

The number of jobseekers in the industrial sector continues to rise in the watchmaking cantons. The increase is particularly strong in the canton of Bern, but also above average in the cantons of Neuchâtel and Geneva. The number of jobseekers is also rising throughout Switzerland, particularly in the industrial sector. 

Fig. 5: New jobseekers in industry in watchmaking cantons 

(compared to the same month of the previous year in percent)